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President Donald Trump’s authorization of U.S. military action to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has added a new geopolitical flashpoint to an oil market that, unlike past eras, appears largely unfazed.
When oil trading opened Sunday evening, futures tied to Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate swung between small gains and losses, reflecting trader caution rather than panic. As reported by Yahoo Finance, market participants are weighing a wide range of scenarios — from a gradual reopening of Venezuela’s oil sector to deeper supply disruptions — but few see conditions for a sustained price spike.
That muted response highlights how dramatically global oil markets have changed. In an online edition of Markets A.M., Wall Street Journal columnist Spencer Jakab noted that similar upheaval once sent prices soaring. In the early 2000s, political turmoil and mass firings at Venezuela’s state oil company slashed output and helped drive crude prices up nearly 40%. At the time, Venezuela produced more than 3% of global supply in a market with little spare capacity.
Today, Venezuela produces roughly 900,000 barrels per day — less than 1% of global supply — in a market already weighed down by excess output. Crude prices fell for a third straight year in 2025 as the OPEC+ unwound production cuts and U.S. shale producers maintained high volumes.
Analysts say the long-term impact depends on what follows Maduro. A rapid transition to a stable, democratic government could eventually allow foreign capital to return and production to recover, putting modest downward pressure on prices over time. A more chaotic outcome — likened by some analysts to post-Gaddafi Libya — could add a small geopolitical risk premium in the near term.
But even a best-case recovery would be slow. Venezuela’s oil infrastructure has suffered decades of underinvestment and brain drain, and rebuilding would require billions in capital and years of work. Chevron remains the only U.S. oil company operating in the country, and only under a limited sanctions waiver.
Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told Markets A.M. that high costs, unresolved legal disputes, and security concerns make a rapid revival of Venezuelan production with American participation far from assured.
Underlying it all is a structural shift. The U.S. shale boom has made global oil supply far more responsive to price changes than during past crises. That flexibility has altered both market dynamics and Washington’s calculus.
“This isn’t your father’s or grandfather’s oil market,” Jakab wrote — and Venezuela’s turmoil, dramatic as it is, underscores just how much the industry has changed.