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Oil prices could face renewed downward pressure through 2026 as global supply continues to outpace demand, according to recent analysis by Goldman Sachs, as reported by Oilprice.com and Barron’s.
In a note cited by Oilprice.com, Goldman Sachs energy analysts said West Texas Intermediate crude could fall as low as $50 per barrel toward the end of this year, driven by what the bank expects to be a significant market imbalance.
The analysts forecast a 2.3 million barrel-per-day surplus in 2026, fueled by rising global inventories and continued growth in non-OPEC supply.
“Rising global oil stocks and our forecast of a 2.3mb/d surplus in 2026 suggest that rebalancing the market likely requires lower oil prices in 2026 to slow down non-OPEC supply growth and support solid demand growth,” Goldman said.
There is, of course, the matter of geopolitics, Goldman noted, as a potential counterweight to prices. Analysts pointed to unrest in Iran as a potential near-term disruption, citing commentary from ANZ that protests could put as much as 1.9 million barrels per day of Iranian oil exports at risk if workers halt production.
Barron’s similarly reported that Goldman expects oil prices to “trend down further” next year, with Brent crude averaging about $56 per barrel and WTI averaging $52 in 2026, compared with current prices near $63 for Brent and $59 for WTI. The bank attributed the bearish outlook to what it described as a “supply wave” leaving the market firmly oversupplied.
Goldman analysts also emphasized the role of U.S. production, noting Washington’s preference for strong domestic energy output as a factor keeping supply elevated. The United States remains the world’s largest oil producer, a dynamic that continues to weigh on global benchmarks.
While the near-term outlook is cautious, Goldman struck a more constructive tone further out. The bank expects the global oil market could swing into deficit by 2027, as lower prices curb non-OPEC production growth and OPEC slows output. Even so, Goldman revised its 2027 forecast lower, projecting Brent crude in the mid-$50s per barrel, down from earlier estimates.
Longer term, Goldman sees oil demand remaining robust well into the 2030s, supporting higher prices and renewed investment. Oilprice.com reported that the bank expects Brent crude could exceed $70 per barrel by 2035, though that outlook, too, represents a downward revision from prior forecasts.