TCU Athletics
The Big 12 has officially restructured, with BYU, the University of Central Florida, Cincinnati, and Houston joining. How’s the conference stack up, after Texas and Oklahoma depart for the SEC?
Matt Olson of The Athletic (subscription required) takes a swipe at the numerous questions in this story, headlined “The New Big 12 is here. How competitive will it be with Cincinnati, BYU, Houston and UCF in the fold?”
“The next iteration of the Big 12 will not depend so deeply on the greatness of its two blueblood programs,” Olson says. “We probably won’t see another run of six consecutive conference titles for quite a while, either. Once Oklahoma and Texas are gone, practically anybody can win this conference.”
What about potential expansion of the College Football Playoff?
“If a 12-team CFP is the future and six spots do go to conference champions, the Big 12’s best will still have a great shot at making the bracket each year. But the Playoff won’t be the lone measurement of this conference’s reputation and relevance. When sources in the Big 12 say their focus in expansion was building as strong of a football league as possible, they’re talking high-level success but also consistent winning. This conference needed more programs that can be top 25-caliber on a regular basis…
“This league hasn’t had a national champion since 2005. When Oklahoma and Texas are gone, all of the Big 12’s hopes should not be pinned on achieving that feat. Getting many teams in contention and multiple teams into the Playoff is the path to prestige and big payouts.”
Top 25 Relevance
“If college football had a 12-team playoff for the past decade, UCF would’ve made it in 2013, 2017, and 2018. The 2015 Houston team gets in. Cincinnati would’ve been the No. 8 seed last season, and BYU might’ve been one win away from an invite.”
Whither the Big 12 Without Playoff Expansion?
“The downside is clear: In the current CFP setup, it will be extremely difficult if not impossible for these programs to topple Alabama, Ohio State and the other talent factories and win national titles. But the changing talent dynamics should also yield genuinely exciting and surprising conference races in the future.”
Recruiting Identity
“The schools not named Oklahoma that have recently won Big 12 titles all had this in common. They thrived on talent evaluation and development. It’s hard to keep count of how many Big 12 coaches, past and present, have told me they looked to Bill Snyder and Kansas State as the model for success in this conference. Gary Patterson, Mike Gundy and Matt Campbell coach differently but have built similarly.
“In a lot of ways, they didn’t have much choice. Texas and Oklahoma always had the most talent. According to the 247Sports Team Talent rankings, there are 144 former blue-chip recruits (four- or five-stars) playing in the Big 12 this season. Oklahoma has 55. Texas has 52. The other eight teams have a combined 51.
“If the new Big 12 existed this year, there would only be two former five-star recruits in the entire conference. And here’s the crazy thing: Both of them — TCU’s Zach Evans and Marcel Brooks — initially signed with SEC schools.”
“We’re talking about a conference where more than 90 percent of scholarship players would be three-star recruits or worse. The only remaining Big 12 programs with more than 10 former blue-chip prospects on their rosters this year are TCU (16) and Baylor (12). UCF has eight, which is not too bad. But nobody is coming anywhere close to flirting with Blue-Chip Ratio status, nor are they concerned with getting there.
“Can the programs that win titles in the new Big 12 (and presumably get a shot at the CFP) get stronger in recruiting? Can schools that might usually end up in the No. 30-40 range nationally start inking more top-25 classes? That’ll be fascinating to follow, and we’ve seen it before with Baylor and TCU.”
The Money
“They won’t know what the money looks like until the next TV deal is negotiated and secured. It’s hard to tell when the College Football Playoff will expand. For all we know, there could be a lot of coaching changes within this league over the next few years. And this league isn’t ruling out expanding again in 2025. This conference could look remarkably different by then.”
(Kansas' athletic director told reporters Friday he's not ruling out the possibility of KU having discussions about joining another conference.)
Who Runs the League Now?
“Among the many long-term questions about the Big 12’s future, this might be the most compelling.
“Ever since Lincoln Riley arrived in Norman in 2015, Oklahoma has owned this conference in football. Is there another program poised to fill the void and take over? Or will we start to see the league trophy change hands most years?
“We got a good glimpse of how this could go from 2011 through 2014, as the Big 12 transitioned through its first round of realignment. Texas was in the final years of the Mack Brown era. Oklahoma was successful but not dominant. Their conference peers had a window of opportunity. And Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Baylor and TCU rose up and claimed Big 12 titles.
“But when the bluebloods in your league have all the advantages, it’s even harder to take the peak years, that stretch of two or three seasons of big-time success, and turn them into a five- to 10-year reign that fills up the trophy case. That won’t be a problem for much longer.
“But if you start trying to think ahead about what the Big 12 might look like in 2025, you might get stuck in the same place I did. It got me wondering whether Patterson, Gundy, Campbell and Fickell will be coaching in this conference by then…
“In this new Big 12, life is going to be different. There’s no Oklahoma or Texas to bully anyone around. There will be a leveling of the playing field, in recruiting and resources, like never before. The league’s brand and perception are sure to undergo change, as will its possibilities. And, again, maybe this isn’t the last time the Big 12 expands. Get ready for a Big 12 that’s totally wide open to win and pretty darn fun to watch.”