Michael Williams
What are the latest in COVID-19 trends and drug and vaccine development? Rusty Reid, CEO of the Fort Worth-based Higginbotham insurance and benefits company, sat down for a virtual Q&A Monday morning with Dr. Michael Williams, president of the University of North Texas Health Science Center. The following are Williams’ answers to Reid’s questions.
Mortality
“The good news is our mortality rates have really gone flat,” due to early detection, better testing, and earlier hospitalization in severe cases. “It’s been relatively flat since the first part of August now.”
New cases
“There’s also good news on the new case rates in Texas,” with new cases now at about 330 per week, down from 900 a week since early August. “If there’s any cautionary here, because it’s the flu season, we can expect things to pick back up again. We’ll see. We’ve never been through a flu season where everybody’s wearing masks and using more hand sanitizer than we’ve ever thought about.”
Testing
“Testing is an evolving story, too.” The nasal swab — or PCR — test is “by far the most accurate and most reliable, and it takes the longest to get the results back,” at three days or more.
Newer antigen saliva tests provide results in an hour or less. “The thing to remember is the results, if they’re positive, tend to be very accurate. But if negative, need to get a PCR test. If you’re still having symptoms and you’ve had a negative saliva test, you need to go get a PCR test.”
If exposed to somebody who has COVID-19, getting tested earlier than four to five days raises a higher likelihood of a false result. “That’s really hard because they want answers.”
Antiviral drug development
As in Tamiflu, which can reduce the duration and severity of flu, “we’re looking for a drug that will reduce the length and severity of COVID infection.” Gilead’s Remdesivir is in Phase 3 human clinical trials expected to be completed before the year’s end.
Vaccine development
Four are in Phase 3 trials. “By the time those four studies are finished, there will be tens of thousands of people exposed” to the trials. Williams said he‘s most excited about a Phase 3 trial underway by Johnson & Johnson, using a one-dose vaccine. “We think we’ll have a vaccine, hopefully something to come out before the end of the year, but not ready for the market before early 2021."
Efficacy of mask-wearing
“Masks are a lot more controversial than I thought they ever would be, but they seem to be working. Masks are not protective for you. They’re protective for everybody else. They block the spray of your droplets. They block the spray of your droplets if you laugh or talk. We think they’re really working. The one thing to remember is masks are just one tool in a bigger toolbox. Wear your masks. Wash your hands. Watch your distance. Those three things are the best that you can do.”